Lagos from the Sea eye

Comments from Mzansi

Here is a truly refreshing article in the Times in South Africa it captures more eloquently the spirit and rationale for the split in the ANC.

http://www.thetimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Insight/Article.aspx?id=861105

Now Mzansi, It is time.

Talk of a split in the broad church that is the ANC is long overdue. This is not a Zuma versus Mbeki discuss but a allowing the two forces that underpin the future direction of South Africa's black majority to emerge. One force I identify with Mbeki and my younger brother Siphiwe Mpye is quite an open Africanisation that seeks dignity and a common humanity grounded in intellectual curiosity. They see South Africa as one of the forces for an African Renaissance as well as challenging western hegemony. They identify that there is a nuanced evolution required for change and they are willing to adapt their positions so long as the vision is not lost. They do not necessarily seek popular acclamation and do not suffer fools gladly. They recognise that not everyone will move at the same speed. On the other hand there is the Jacob Zuma exemplified and reflected in my brother Pious Kasolo who express an African stereotype of populist and traditional expression of power in which authority is by position not ideas and have an Mzansi exceptionalism couched in superior infrastructure and fear of mass migration or swamping. They project an activism of the lowest common denominator seeing the Anti-apartheid struggle as an insular battle won by the good over the bad. Their lessons from that is that Mzansi is got theirs and the rest of Africa well they should get on their bikes. They fight a class war that suggest that the poor are entitled to a good life rather than they should be given the opportunity to work for a good living.

For the sake of Mzansi and those who love it the ANC must split there has to be the competitive and co-operative dynamic equilibrium that is the basis of evolution. It is time for new possibilities and this is not only true in Mzansi but the same is true of the Power Dinosaur that is the PDP in Nigeria. It seems now the purpose of this massive parties is just the accumulation of power rather than the generation of a framework of ideas and ideals. Lets have a new dawn in Africa lets have truly competitive parties in fact we need a space where people with ideas can run as independents. We need to open this stuff up especially the ANC.

Intra Africa trade

Apparently the figure for Intra Africa trade as percentage of exports for 2007/2008 is 8 %. I wrote an academic analysis of this in 1999 and then it was 9 %. This is a very scary figure it means self loathing trumps the drive for economic growth. I have included a link to the bulletin below

http://en.afrik.com/article14510.html

Greatly loved but often misunderstood.

Paul Coehlo published a book called the Valkyries to explore why we kill what we love. So it is with Nigeria and Nigerians. We argue and discuss it till blue in the face, most of us cynical at its prospects but secretly rooting for its success but quite unwilling to sacrifice our comfort for its success. Yesterday night was not different and as usual or discuss was ably lubricated by the best of Cognacs, beers and wines. Happy birthday old lady we all truly wish you well at 48 for many you are on the way to hell in a bread basket but don't sweat it. Let me remind you of the words of one of your true lovers wrote this in 1952 in the hope that you would be set free in 1956 , he never saw either but he said

" It is here in West Africa, the black man's paradise, here in Nigeria, the heaven of the negro race, here in Western region, the chosen land for a modern Shongay, here in big, lucky, vigorous Ibadan, that apartheid, the moral enemy of our race , must be grabbed, must be fought, must be vanquished and annihilated; so that our descendants may live in peace, prosperity and freedom. Nigeria must be free, completely free, independent, independent without any reservations before or in the year of our Lord, one thousand, nine hundred and fifty six."

Honourable Adegoke Adelabu , Africa in Ebullition

The greatest gift for your birthday is to rekindle the spirit, thoughts and letters of this Great Lover of your possibilities what he lost in his prediction was more than provided for in his ideas and eloquent pursuit of the realisation of a great Nation nicely cradled between the gushing Niger and the sedate Benue. Happy Birthday Old girl.

Buying the Bridge to nowhere

Watching the American Investment Banks fall like a pack of dominoes it brings back memories of the Saving and Loans fiasco of the past two decades or so. There is this tendency for the US to sell everyone a pig in the poke and for the Brits as their greatest cheerleaders to ensure it resonates across the world.

Mwalimu Nyerere is reputed as saying that there should be universal principles with local standards unfortunately the US sells its aspirations as universal standards. With the help of its 'objective' media and the support of its 'rational allies' who are all committed to the good things whilst any deviation is an insistence on a lifestyle of debauchery. How else can you explain how so called objective media oversaw the invasion of Iraq building consensus for the fantasy of WMDs or even the perversion that is Guantanamo detention without trial or Abu Graib or even the somewhat callous use of open bribery to get the Northern League to fight the Taliban I suppose everyone thinks that this is just in the field of International politics surely it does not extend to any other field or does it ? Think about it the working assumption is that free markets or Market Capitalism is the universal standard that the entire world should live by. The same was said for Democracy until 2000 when it was convenient for the US supreme court not to count votes and to support an openly rigged election. It is the same kind of selective application of standards that is at work in this financial mess.

The people who brought us free unfettered markets forgot to tell us that when their backs are to the wall well to hell with the standards to which they held all of us. It is those who ask others to open their markets to any type of investors that shut their ports to the Dubai Investment company or even prevent the Chinese from taking specific slices of their economy. For years the there has been aggregation and leveraging of debt. It is repackage and sold to consumers whose need for instant gratification far outweighs the capacity to pay has been the engine room for growth in the US as well as the UK. The shouted this notion of consumer led economy whereby the media made a lot of advert revenue by selling everything as a must have. Every sale was a bargain, every gadget was editorialised like a cure for cancer. For all this greed there was credit on offer whether you could handle it or not. This dangerously designed and poorly executed attempt to lazily maintain growth was accompanied with the freedom to roam and gorge without regulation given directly to financial institution. Capital crossed borders in search of fresh kills with very little concern for its underpinning.

As it falls apart spare a thoughts for Nigerian Banks whose unintelligent mimicking of this failed policy is now starting to take root. Banks here give credit to business in ways that will make Shylock blush but offer the middle classes all kinds of credit to easily purchase Plasma TVs , cars even home furnishings. The cheap takings from funding consumption rather than production as become the business model. In spite of less than 20% of the population having bank accounts the same banks put pressure on their staff to seek additional accounts from the same middle classes who already have accounts. Their requirements are so onerous for the Woman in Oja Oba or Epe Fish market that it is only the very same 20% that now have four or five accounts from different banks.

Believe we already bought the bridge and surely whether there is credit crunch or not we cannot sustain the journey. This group think has to stop.

Race Election 2008 (AP copy)

Here is one explanation for the Palin factor and the closeness of the opinion polls so far. It is not he only one though. It is worth a complete read.

Poll: Racial misgivings of whites an Obama issue


Sep 20 07:57 PM US/Eastern
By RON FOURNIER and TREVOR TOMPSON
Associated Press Writers




WASHINGTON (AP) - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks—many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004—about 2.5 percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents—voters Obama can't win the White House without—agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution.
"There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," said Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman who helped analyze the exhaustive survey.
The pollsters set out to determine why Obama is locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats. President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war and a national sense of economic hard times cut against GOP candidates, as does that fact that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans.
The findings suggest that Obama's problem is close to home—among his fellow Democrats, particularly non-Hispanic white voters. Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain.
The survey also focused on the racial attitudes of independent voters because they are likely to decide the election.
Lots of Republicans harbor prejudices, too, but the survey found they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president—white, black or brown.
Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama.
On the other side of the racial question, the Illinois Democrat is drawing almost unanimous support from blacks, the poll shows, though that probably wouldn't be enough to counter the negative effect of some whites' views.
Race is not the biggest factor driving Democrats and independents away from Obama. Doubts about his competency loom even larger, the poll indicates. More than a quarter of all Democrats expressed doubt that Obama can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that.
Three in 10 of those Democrats who don't trust Obama's change-making credentials say they plan to vote for McCain.
Still, the effects of whites' racial views are apparent in the polling.
Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.
But in an election without precedent, it's hard to know if such models take into account all the possible factors at play.
The AP-Yahoo poll used the unique methodology of Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park, Calif., firm that interviews people online after randomly selecting and screening them over telephone. Numerous studies have shown that people are more likely to report embarrassing behavior and unpopular opinions when answering questions on a computer rather than talking to a stranger.
Other techniques used in the poll included recording people's responses to black or white faces flashed on a computer screen, asking participants to rate how well certain adjectives apply to blacks, measuring whether people believe blacks' troubles are their own fault, and simply asking people how much they like or dislike blacks.
"We still don't like black people," said John Clouse, 57, reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio.
Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with "boastful," 29 percent "complaining," 13 percent "lazy" and 11 percent "irresponsible." When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.
Among white Democrats, one-third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama.
The poll sought to measure latent prejudices among whites by asking about factors contributing to the state of black America. One finding: More than a quarter of white Democrats agree that "if blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites."
Those who agreed with that statement were much less likely to back Obama than those who didn't.
Among white independents, racial stereotyping is not uncommon. For example, while about 20 percent of independent voters called blacks "intelligent" or "smart," more than one third latched on the adjective "complaining" and 24 percent said blacks were "violent."
Nearly four in 10 white independents agreed that blacks would be better off if they "try harder."
The survey broke ground by incorporating images of black and white faces to measure implicit racial attitudes, or prejudices that are so deeply rooted that people may not realize they have them. That test suggested the incidence of racial prejudice is even higher, with more than half of whites revealing more negative feelings toward blacks than whites.
Researchers used mathematical modeling to sort out the relative impact of a huge swath of variables that might have an impact on people's votes—including race, ideology, party identification, the hunger for change and the sentiments of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's backers.
Just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton's white backers plan to vote for McCain.
Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries—particularly whites with high school education or less—were motivated in part by racial attitudes.
The survey of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
___
Associated Press writers Nancy Benac, Julie Carr Smyth, Philip Elliot, Julie Pace and Sonya Ross contributed to this report. 
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.