Sunday, December 23, 2007

Welcome to the Liminal state

Back from Gidi always with a humility about both the possibilities and challenges of life in Nigeria. it is difficult not to notice that unlike the cocoon or the matrix that we live in the Western world back in Nigeria everything seems constructed to test and demand the fullness of your essence both in the best as well as the worst way. A lot more on that much later. The picture I have scanned in is from BusinessDay newspaper of the 20th of December and captures the nature of the Liminal sate of not just Nigeria but also of the broader world in which we are living.

A Liminal State has been described as ' A realm of pure possibility where novel configurations of ideas and relations may arise'. Here 10 things for the new year that should give the wise inspiration for this emergent age.

1) China rising, is a trite fact but disturbing for the west. The Olympics will be a success and rebranding of China will be complete. Many in the West will continue to warn and their acolytes in Africa will criticize. China is not a friend or enemy of Africa but an ally whose interest will determine how it behaves. It is just business and it is time Africa gets beyond aid and friends to just doing business.

2) EU diminishing, is a fact that the recent Lisbon talks reveals but there are still enough African ass kissers who do not realise the power of competitiveness. It is time for a mature relationship based on requirements rather than handouts. Time to move beyond commodities to production of added value. Lets rock Divine chocolates y´all.

3) Growth polars are the new salvation. Yesterday the talk was of BRIC(Brazil, Russia, India, China). 2008 is the year of SANE , South Africa, Algeria,Nigeria, Egypt. Look out for the stock markets as well as phenomenal growth level. The African renaissance is about pure economics in 2008 and they will deliver.

4) Nuclear realignment is here. Forget the fight against proliferation, knowledge is now diffused and many will build plants and create their own capacity. Beyond Iran look again at Brazil, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.

5)The dying dollar will become real. Bretton Wood fudge that has protected the greenback will not survive the year. South korea and China to be the first to break ranks then OPEC to follow or is it the other way round. Never mind buy other currencies dump the dollar.

6) Gulf of Guinea becomes the new Middle East back to its primacy in the 1800s no longer slave coast or palm oil now crude oil the new finds in Ghana to increase both volumes and competition. The days of 100 dollars and above a barrel is here.

7) Stock market is the new democracy in Africa with everyone rushing to buy into the returns of expanding shareholding. Check Kenya in spite of turmiol, Nigeria, Egypt to recapture eminence. 40% average returns too good to pass on compared to 4% and 7% in London and New York for 2007. Put your money where it feeds your future with profit.

8) The Al Jazeera jazz becomes the new wave as Africans now tell their stories to the world not just the amatuerish NTA news. Here comes the new wave fashioned by emerging confidence in the fact the stories interest the world and increasingly funded by a hungry Diaspora. The Africa Channel will rock.

9) Celtel roaming network will become zone for organising a new level of digitisation increasing pssibility of real trade between East and West coast in real volumes for the first time. Look out for Nigerians taking Sallah holidays in Zanzibar.

10) The backlash against Pentecostal churches start in 2008 in earnset. Only the truly committed will survive credibly . The days of Las Vegas churches touting tithes for earthly returns will be checkmate by increased prosperity through hard work and larger middle classes.

Never mind if any of these disturbs you . My track record on predictions are all on this blog. You can go back to last year and check how much came true. As for now the rum takes the edge of the impending recession in the UK. I plan my assault on Gidi (the sequel) with the best of my ideas and the burning passion for posterity. 2008 is the year for standing up for our children no more excuses, no more edging our bets let our children know they matter as we fight to build a legacy. My moment of 2007 is when my youngest Ami a year after visiting Nigeria for the first time asked me , Daddy I know you say we are descended from royalty but are you still a king? Why i asked. He goes, the way we were treated when we went to Nigeria is like everyone knew you and loved you. People looked after us all the time. I laugh and say of course we are royalty. Then he said why are we giving that up for England? For that there is no answer.


Simon McIntyre said...

A very telling comment from Ami.

2008, our fight for freedom.

olu said...

oga mi
Welcome back .
I wish you a prosperous and healthy new year.

Your predictions are very plausible but I believe in some cases the time frame will be longer than you predicted.
No big shakes but I believe the world economy is too dependent on the dollar for your prediction to hold true. As the Greek said in the wire series " business is business"
The chinese know that they need a strong dollar to sell their goods and for China to proper.
Your comment on the possibilities of Nigeria is reassuring . I continue to keep an open mind and pray to the Almighty for the breakthrough, because the bulk of the population with unfulfilled dreams and aspirations deserves better.

ijebuman said...

if anything i hope no.10 happens..

Onibudo said...

You guys are the ones that make it all possible. Whether true or false, I am sure this is a year when you take things to a different level. We will try to do so on this pages with your help and support.


from the mouths of babes...

I'm off to see last year's predictions.

Loomnie said...

Nice predictions. I can see the dollar losing some of its current status. The Economist has been writing about it for a while.... Actually, they advise that the oil-rich Gulf countries should untie their currencies from the dollar.

Al Jazeera is my new news fix. It is somehow refreshing to know that there are now more viable options than just CNN and BBC.

One worrying thing is nuclear proliferation. There are many countries that dont have any business having nuclear energy. And Nigeria is one of them.

I really am looking forward to number 10 too.

Really nice blog.